Anyone selling at MSRP in DMV area?

[Alan_F]

Of course, manufacturing jobs are not coming back to the US. They never were. But what does that have to do with the subject of labor shortage, which was the topic at hand?

The recent increased wages of unskilled or semi-skilled labor, due to worker shortages and companies having to pay more, will keep manufacturing jobs offshore. Even when companies can afford to pay the higher wages, they can't find enough workers. At this point, they can't even find enough workers to offload the ships from foreign made goods, much less finding workers to actually make those goods in the USA. There are 80.000 truck driver jobs open in the US, according to a CNBC report today.

IMO, the benefits of higher pay for lower paid workers is going to end up being illusory, because these people generally have fewer assets like homes or investments that appreciate in value, and everything like rents, food (even including fast-food) is going to cost them more so that it will eat up their higher wages. Meanwhile, those who are asset rich and who own homes and investments will see their net worth keep up with inflation and probably more. Not to mention all the retired people on fixed incomes who are going to suffer financially from inflation.

 

[Eric2203]

The recent increased wages of unskilled or semi-skilled labor, due to worker shortages and companies having to pay more, will keep manufacturing jobs offshore. Even when companies can afford to pay the higher wages, they can't find enough workers. At this point, they can't even find enough workers to offload the ships from foreign made goods, much less finding workers to actually make those goods in the USA. There are 80.000 truck driver jobs open in the US, according to a CNBC report today.

IMO, the benefits of higher pay for lower paid workers is going to end up being illusory, because these people generally have fewer assets like homes or investments that appreciate in value, and everything like rents, food (even including fast-food) is going to cost them more so that it will eat up their higher wages. Meanwhile, those who are asset rich and who own homes and investments will see their net worth keep up with inflation and probably more. Not to mention all the retired people on fixed incomes who are going to suffer financially from inflation.

You haven’t answered where you’re getting this idea that people made more money from unemployment, even enough that they don’t have to go back to work. Still waiting for evidence of this nonsense.

Manufacturing jobs were never coming back to the US, even before COVID. The labor cost is too high in the US. Any manufacturing job coming to the US will be automated. This is nothing new and this new world with inflation/worker shortage isn’t what caused it.

This high inflation situation will not last forever and is due to far more factors than just labor shortage. As to retired people on fixed income, social security is increasing 5.9% for 2022.

As to labor shortage, increased wages is still one of the ways to address it. It’s already happening. Inflation may eat up some of this, but again, high inflation is temporary and is affected by other factors that will also slowly resolve themselves (such as part shortages due to demand, not lack of labor).

 

[Alan_F]

You haven’t answered where you’re getting this idea that people made more money from unemployment, even enough that they don’t have to go back to work. Still waiting for evidence of this nonsense.

Manufacturing jobs were never coming back to the US, even before COVID. The labor cost is too high in the US. Any manufacturing job coming to the US will be automated. This is nothing new and this new world with inflation/worker shortage isn’t what caused it.

This high inflation situation will not last forever and is due to far more factors than just labor shortage. As to retired people on fixed income, social security is increasing 5.9% for 2022.

As to labor shortage, increased wages is still one of the ways to address it. It’s already happening. Inflation may eat up some of this, but again, high inflation is temporary and is affected by other factors that will also slowly resolve themselves (such as part shortages due to demand, not lack of labor).

People Are Leaving the Workforce in Droves: What it Means for Businesses​

People Are Leaving the Workforce in Droves: What it Means for Businesses - Verizon Small Business Essentials Resources

AuthorRay Hennessey Typearticle ProviderEntrepreneur What will happen to your business when more of your customers don't work than do? Given the sheer size of our country, it seems a question that we never need ponder. But the trends in employment numbers, as reflected in this morning's Labor...

www.verizon.com

I don't want to continue this anymore, because it is getting way off-topic, other than inflation is rampant and there will be no rollbacks in wages or restaurant prices, or MSRP.

 

[Eric2203]

People Are Leaving the Workforce in Droves: What it Means for Businesses​

People Are Leaving the Workforce in Droves: What it Means for Businesses - Verizon Small Business Essentials Resources

AuthorRay Hennessey Typearticle ProviderEntrepreneur What will happen to your business when more of your customers don't work than do? Given the sheer size of our country, it seems a question that we never need ponder. But the trends in employment numbers, as reflected in this morning's Labor...

www.verizon.com

I don't want to continue this anymore, because it is getting way off-topic, other than inflation is rampant and there will be no rollbacks in wages or restaurant prices, or MSRP.

Dude, this article is from 8 years ago. And it references zero hedge, which is a known conspiracy theory website. No wonder you believe all this nonsense. Try using actual data sources.

You still can’t provide any evidence for your claim that people made more with an extra $300 on unemployment than when working, or that it somehow allowed them to exit the workforce altogether (which is utterly ridiculous).

The fact remains that shortages are not only due to a lack of workers, as you claim, and that shortages aren’t the sole reason for inflation. You grossly oversimplify the situation.

All of this has already been explained to you in this thread and not only by me.

 

[Alan_F]

You still can’t provide any evidence for your claim that people made more with an extra $300 on unemployment than when working, or that it somehow allowed them to exit the workforce altogether (which is utterly ridiculous).

I don't need to offer any evidence, since is simple logic that if one gets paid more in unemployment insurance than they were making when employed, there is no incentive for them to get a job. A lot of them worked in black market hourly labor jobs without reporting the income to the state unemployment insurance authorities (jobs which they could perform since they weren't working their old job). So those people ended up making more than double their old wages.

Just on CNBC this morning, a guy who is opening a new restaurant (he already owns a bunch of them) just hired 120 people and is having to raise the starting pay from $13 per hour to $20 per hour. He said that all his restaurants will be raising prices at least 7% in the near future. That sounds great for the employees, but I wonder how many of them will be able to maintain or improve their lifestyles since everything they buy is also costing a lot more.

BTW, that is $300 per week, which about $1300 more per month.

Here is an interesting article that explains it:

25% to 40% of Jobless Americans Are Making More on Unemployment Than They Did at a Job

Some lawmakers argue that boosted unemployment disincentivizes the jobless to get back to work. When we look at low-income wages, it's easy to see why.

www.fool.com

 

[Eric2203]

I don't need to offer any evidence, since is simple logic that if one gets paid more in unemployment insurance than they were making when employed, there is no incentive for them to get a job.

Except that one can find a better paying job and therefore make more money that way. Particularly now that jobs are available. Or did that scenario not occur to you? Where is the data on how many people chose to stay unemployed? Still waiting…

A lot of them worked in black market hourly labor jobs

A lot? Says who? Where’s the source for this?

without reporting the income to the state unemployment insurance authorities (jobs which they could perform since they weren't working their old job). So those people ended up making more than double their old wages.

Just on CNBC this morning, a guy who is opening a new restaurant (he already owns a bunch of them) just hired 120 people and is having to raise the starting pay from $13 per hour to $20 per hour. He said that all his restaurants will be raising prices at least 7% in the near future. That sounds great for the employees, but I wonder how many of them will be able to maintain or improve their lifestyles since everything they buy is also costing a lot more.

Again, inflation is not permanent and it dependent on many other factors. And if wages had kept up with cost of living and GDP in the past decade and a half, the rise in wages now wouldn’t be so steep.

BTW, that is $300 per week, which about $1300 more per month.

Here is an interesting article that explains it:

25% to 40% of Jobless Americans Are Making More on Unemployment Than They Did at a Job

Some lawmakers argue that boosted unemployment disincentivizes the jobless to get back to work. When we look at low-income wages, it's easy to see why.

www.fool.com

Oh great, an article that has no source for the “25% to 40%” claim (a pretty wide range to being with). They state “it is estimated”… more made-up nonsense. What’s next, another 8-year old article with a conspiracy theory website as a source?


It really is getting tiresome to constantly hear the people being blamed for everything rather than the broken parts of the system. There are countless studies out there showing that the extra unemployment cash didn’t hurt hiring. And several of those where made when the amount was $600/week, not $300. The lack of workers isn’t the main factor for inflation. Shortages are. Those shortages are caused by the pandemic, which resulted in lockdowns (less supply) and massive sudden demand on the other side of the pandemic. The automotive sector is one of the largest contributor to inflation in the US. It was the largest in April and May. The pandemic also caused issues with childcare, forcing some people to choose unemployment over work, which is explained literally everywhere you look. But that was temporary as well. All of this was mentioned already, but you chose to ignore it and focus only on unemployment assistance.

Your obsession on unemployment aid and those who abused the system, even though they represent a fraction of the issue (remember, that extra money has been gone for a few months and we still have a labor shortage, which you conveniently don’t address!), shows that the brainwashing from certain media continues to work. Take a step back and consider the impact of what you’re railing against and you’ll realize it is actually minor and isn’t the reason for what is happening. That requires thinking for yourself rather than repeating what you hear. Always look for sources of data and be willing to challenge your own way of thinking when the facts don’t align with your beliefs.

 

[steelers]

Called local Kia dealer...asked cost to order...$10,000 over msrp
Told them I could go out of state for msrp
Sales guy said...fine..

 

[Alan_F]

Except that one can find a better paying job and therefore make more money that way. Particularly now that jobs are available. Or did that scenario not occur to you? Where is the data on how many people chose to stay unemployed? Still waiting…

A lot? Says who? Where’s the source for this?

Again, inflation is not permanent and it dependent on many other factors. And if wages had kept up with cost of living and GDP in the past decade and a half, the rise in wages now wouldn’t be so steep.

Oh great, an article that has no source for the “25% to 40%” claim (a pretty wide range to being with). They state “it is estimated”… more made-up nonsense. What’s next, another 8-year old article with a conspiracy theory website as a source?


It really is getting tiresome to constantly hear the people being blamed for everything rather than the broken parts of the system. There are countless studies out there showing that the extra unemployment cash didn’t hurt hiring. And several of those where made when the amount was $600/week, not $300. The lack of workers isn’t the main factor for inflation. Shortages are. Those shortages are caused by the pandemic, which resulted in lockdowns (less supply) and massive sudden demand on the other side of the pandemic. The automotive sector is one of the largest contributor to inflation in the US. It was the largest in April and May. The pandemic also caused issues with childcare, forcing some people to choose unemployment over work, which is explained literally everywhere you look. But that was temporary as well. All of this was mentioned already, but you chose to ignore it and focus only on unemployment assistance.

Your obsession on unemployment aid and those who abused the system, even though they represent a fraction of the issue (remember, that extra money has been gone for a few months and we still have a labor shortage, which you conveniently don’t address!), shows that the brainwashing from certain media continues to work. Take a step back and consider the impact of what you’re railing against and you’ll realize it is actually minor and isn’t the reason for what is happening. That requires thinking for yourself rather than repeating what you hear. Always look for sources of data and be willing to challenge your own way of thinking when the facts don’t align with your beliefs.

Your claim that I am obsessing over the extra unemployment insurance (that paid people more to be unemployed than they were making when working) is false. That was one factor in lowering the labor participation rate, but not by any means the only one. The only reason I repeat it is because you outright deny that it even happened or deny that it had any affect at all, which is totally absurd. There is still a severe shortage of workers, especially in the supply chain, that is still causing disruptions and price increases and allows Kia and Hyundai dealers to ask $10K over MSRP. There is a shortage of 80,000 truck drivers in the US right now, which was rather evident when I went grocery shopping and the shelves were very poorly stocked. That is probably affecting car deliveries to dealers also. Any business that wants their goods delivered on a timely basis has to pay through the nose to get a driver to deliver it.

The Federal Reserve Chairman (Jay Powell) finally admitted a couple of days ago in front of Congress that inflation is no longer transitory, and the the Fed will now speed up the "tapering" process, which means they will be buying less government and corporate debt faster than they had previously planned. The Fed buying US and corporate debt flooded the markets with liquidly and drove up stock prices, and created an economic bubble that lowered the labor participation rate.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell retires the word 'transitory' in describing inflation

The nation’s economic steward said it will back off of using the word “transitory” to describe the fast pace of price increases, as Federal Reserve policymakers acknowledge the increasing risk of more persistent inflation.

news.yahoo.com

There has been too much liquidity in the markets and in the economy as a whole, all of which has provided enough money to keep a lot of people from having to, or wanting to, work. Schools are now open, so people are not having to quit their jobs to care of their kids anymore, so please stop using that excuse.

Also, I don't read or listen to any of the news sources you claim that I do. I am highly educated in the field of business and economics, and don't rely on talking heads on TV to explain anything to me, and I don't watch TV news shows other than Bloomberg Business News, CNBC Business News, and CSPAN. These are not right wing news organizations.

 

[Eric2203]

Your claim that I am obsessing over the extra unemployment insurance (that paid people more to be unemployed than they were making when working) is false. That was one factor in lowering the labor participation rate, but not by any means the only one. The only reason I repeat it is because you outright deny that it even happened or deny that it had any affect at all, which is totally absurd. There is still a severe shortage of workers, especially in the supply chain, that is still causing disruptions and price increases and allows Kia and Hyundai dealers to ask $10K over MSRP. There is a shortage of 80,000 truck drivers in the US right now, which was rather evident when I went grocery shopping and the shelves were very poorly stocked. That is probably affecting car deliveries to dealers also. Any business that wants their goods delivered on a timely basis has to pay through the nose to get a driver to deliver it.

You claim that this shortage of workers is caused by this extra unemployment insurance. Which isn't even available anymore and hasn't for a while now. This is false and you've provided no evidence showing otherwise.

The Federal Reserve Chairman (Jay Powell) finally admitted a couple of days ago in front of Congress that inflation is no longer transitory, and the the Fed will now speed up the "tapering" process, which means they will be buying less government and corporate debt faster than they had previously planned. The Fed buying US and corporate debt flooded the markets with liquidly and drove up stock prices, and created an economic bubble that lowered the labor participation rate.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell retires the word 'transitory' in describing inflation

The nation’s economic steward said it will back off of using the word “transitory” to describe the fast pace of price increases, as Federal Reserve policymakers acknowledge the increasing risk of more persistent inflation.

news.yahoo.com

There has been too much liquidity in the markets and in the economy as a whole, all of which has provided enough money to keep a lot of people from having to, or wanting to, work.

"that lowered the labor participation rate"? "keep people from wanting to work"? How do higher stock prices accomplish that exactly? Did higher stock prices magically raise unemployment benefits somehow?

Schools are now open, so people are not having to quit their jobs to care of their kids anymore, so please stop using that excuse.

They weren't open when those unemployment benefits where in place, which is what you're talking about.
EDIT: and by the way, there is a shortage of child care providers at the moment, so that does impact parents' decision to go back to work.

Also, I don't read or listen to any of the news sources you claim that I do. I am highly educated in the field of business and economics, and don't rely on talking heads on TV to explain anything to me, and I don't watch TV news shows other than Bloomberg Business News, CNBC Business News, and CSPAN. These are not right wing news organizations.

I seriously doubt that, considering you refuse to acknowledge the impact of COVID on shortages: lockdowns causing factories to cause, shift in demand towards more electronic goods, and exiting the pandemic, which results in higher, but temporary, demand.

And if you did know what you're talking about, you'd know that the Fed uses the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) to track inflation. You'd know that it's published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Department of Commerce. You'd know that their analysis shows that the biggest increases are in motor vehicles & parts, energy, and international travel. Only the latter is affected by labor shortages, not the other 2 - car manufacturers don't have enough parts to build cars to begin with (that's COVID impact, not labor shortage impact). While everything else is also increasing, it is at a much more measured rate than these industries, even if a little on the high side. As a result, those 3 industries have an abnormal contribution to inflation , which distorts the rate. This is why you can't just look at the total inflation % without actually looking at which industries are affected.

You can download the data from the BEA and calculate the percentages yourself, if you want. You might learn something.


On topic: anyone who isn't too far from Pittsburgh, Wright Hyundai in Wexford sells at MSRP.

 

[Alan_F]

You claim that this shortage of workers is caused by this extra unemployment insurance. Which isn't even available anymore and hasn't for a while now. This is false and you've provided no evidence showing otherwise.

"that lowered the labor participation rate"? "keep people from wanting to work"? How do higher stock prices accomplish that exactly? Did higher stock prices magically raise unemployment benefits somehow?

They weren't open when those unemployment benefits where in place, which is what you're talking about.

I seriously doubt that, considering you refuse to acknowledge the impact of COVID on shortages: lockdowns causing factories to cause, shift in demand towards more electronic goods, and exiting the pandemic, which results in higher, but temporary, demand.

And if you did know what you're talking about, you'd know that the Fed uses the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) to track inflation. You'd know that it's published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Department of Commerce. You'd know that their analysis shows that the biggest increases are in motor vehicles & parts, energy, and international travel. Only the latter is affected by labor shortages, not the other 2 - car manufacturers don't have enough parts to build cars to begin with (that's COVID impact, not labor shortage impact). While everything else is also increasing, it is at a much more measured rate than these industries, even if a little on the high side. As a result, those 3 industries have an abnormal contribution to inflation , which distorts the rate. This is why you can't just look at the total inflation % without actually looking at which industries are affected.

You can download the data from the BEA and calculate the percentages yourself, if you want. You might learn something.


On topic: anyone who isn't too far from Pittsburgh, Wright Hyundai in Wexford sells at MSRP.

The extra unemployment insurance did cause people to stop working and not return to their jobs, because they got paid a lot more unemployment insurance than they were making, due to a ridiculous change in the law just for COVID. I never said that was the sole reason for the worker shortage, and for some reason a lot people have not gone back to work now that the extra unemployment benefits have expired, the reasons for which appear to be varied and a bit complicated. But regardless of the effect on worker participation right now, the law that paid people more not to work, than they got paid to work, was completely ridiculous, and just like the old welfare rules more than 25 years ago, provided a disincentive to work.

I originally said that the worker shortage is due to poor Fiscal Policy (government spending and handouts) and also poor Monetary Policy (which is controlled by the Federal Reserve, mainly by controlling the money supply and interest rates). I never said it was just one thing. Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell finally admitted to Congress a couple of days ago that inflation is not transitory, and it is a problem (caused by government fiscal and monetary policy) and the Fed will start taking corrective action to curb inflation sooner than they previously had anticipated. This is a fact Jack.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell retires the word 'transitory' in describing inflation

The nation’s economic steward said it will back off of using the word “transitory” to describe the fast pace of price increases, as Federal Reserve policymakers acknowledge the increasing risk of more persistent inflation.

news.yahoo.com

If you don't like Yahoo News, you can get the same exact story from the New York Times or Washington Post, but I don't post those links because those sites are not free (once you use up your quota of free views).

The problem with inflation now boils down to a lack of workers, which is causing supply chain and other problems. Companies have to pay a lot more to incent workers to come back to work or hire new ones, and companies have to raise their prices to cover their increased labor costs. Those wage increases are likely permanent, so don't expect very many businesses to ever reduce their prices (unless you are talking about commodity prices, which can vary up or down). All of this would normally be great for low wage earners, who can now make a lot more money, but their rents are going to increase, and fast-food restaurants are charging a lot more, and grocery prices are up. Plus, some of those jobs may eventually disappear if US wages are too high, because those jobs may be moved offshore if US companies can't find workers in the US.

 

[elp_jc]

I'm amazed at the greediness I've seen from dealers everywhere. But in order for that greediness to materialize, you need a willing buyer, and THAT is the other part of the problem. If nobody paid above MSRP, the practice would disappear. So BOTH buyers and dealers are to blame for that practice.

I understand MSRP (meaning no junk fees, except a doc fee of less than $150), but not above that. And yes, I paid MSRP for my Calligraphy for the first time ever (other than the Tesla, which cannot be negotiated down). I would not have paid above that myself out of principle... but I also recognize there wasn't any other vehicle that even came close to the Calligraphy at that price, so a few grand above MSRP might still be a relatively good value. So can't blame buyers for agreeing to pay above MSRP. But my point is they're contributing to dealers getting away with that practice, which won't go away until demand slows (or supply goes up). I personally don't see that happening until the second half of 2022. We'll see, I guess. And yes, same crap is happening with houses all over.

 

[Alan_F]

I'm amazed at the greediness I've seen from dealers everywhere. But in order for that greediness to materialize, you need a willing buyer, and THAT is the other part of the problem. If nobody paid above MSRP, the practice would disappear. So BOTH buyers and dealers are to blame for that practice.

I understand MSRP (meaning no junk fees, except a doc fee of less than $150), but not above that. And yes, I paid MSRP for my Calligraphy for the first time ever (other than the Tesla, which cannot be negotiated down). I would not have paid above that myself out of principle... but I also recognize there wasn't any other vehicle that even came close to the Calligraphy at that price, so a few grand above MSRP might still be a relatively good value. So can't blame buyers for agreeing to pay above MSRP. But my point is they're contributing to dealers getting away with that practice, which won't go away until demand slows (or supply goes up). I personally don't see that happening until the second half of 2022. We'll see, I guess. And yes, same crap is happening with houses all over.

That depends partly on how much money the government gives away in the coming year in the form of more economic stimulus checks, and also proposed tax credits for things like child care that will be taken up by Congress soon. If the far left gets their way, consumers are going to have a lot of extra cash to spend. Also, the revocation of the $10K tax deduction limit on state and local taxes being proposed by Democrats will hand over a lot of extra money to those in the upper middle class. All of this will be inflationary, so that the benefits of the higher after-tax incomes will be at least partially wiped out by higher prices.

Right now, putting a Palisade Limited or Calligraphy on a dealer lot is like putting some food in a shallow pond of starving purana fish.

 

[Eric2203]

I never said it was just one thing.

But you said this unemployment assistance was the main reason for the labor shortage. This isn't true. Multiple studies made when this help was $600, not even $300, show that it didn't hurt hiring. You have no data to back your claim up. The reality is that only a tiny amount of workers declined work solely because of how much this aid was,

Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell finally admitted to Congress a couple of days ago that inflation is not transitory, and it is a problem (caused by government fiscal and monetary policy) and the Fed will start taking corrective action to curb inflation sooner than they previously had anticipated. This is a fact Jack.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell retires the word 'transitory' in describing inflation

The nation’s economic steward said it will back off of using the word “transitory” to describe the fast pace of price increases, as Federal Reserve policymakers acknowledge the increasing risk of more persistent inflation.

news.yahoo.com

This monetary policy is NOT what started this inflation spike. This is simply not true. Consequences of COVID did. It even says that in the article you linked to. While their policy isn't helping inflation, which is why they're now taking corrective action, they've waited to take it because 1) the total inflation rate is distorted by a few specific industries and is not a true representation of reality (see my previous post) and 2) the inflation rate had dropped below 2%, which is the generally accepted target, so if it climbed higher for a while, it actually averaged out to a reasonable target. You oversimplify things.
And in your previous post, you said it lowered the labor participation rate, which makes no sense.

The problem with inflation now boils down to a lack of workers

No, it isn't just because of that. That's what I keep trying to tell you. For example, Car prices are not high because of lack of workers, but because of a lack of parts. And that sector contribute massively to the inflation rate (it was the largest contributor to inflation in Q2 2021, as I already said).

Companies have to pay a lot more to incent workers to come back to work or hire new ones, and companies have to raise their prices to cover their increased labor costs. Those wage increases are likely permanent, so don't expect very many businesses to ever reduce their prices (unless you are talking about commodity prices, which can vary up or down). All of this would normally be great for low wage earners, who can now make a lot more money, but their rents are going to increase, and fast-food restaurants are charging a lot more, and grocery prices are up. Plus, some of those jobs may eventually disappear if US wages are too high, because those jobs may be moved offshore if US companies can't find workers in the US.

If wages had kept up with GDP in the last few years instead of being so ridiculously low, this wouldn't be as much of a shock to the system. The massive increase in job openings is allowing people to be picky about where they work and how much they earn. What's your solution? To keep paying people barely enough to survive?
The fact is that most low-wages jobs are leaving the US anyway. This isn't new. It's ample justification to stop using an education system designed to start people in life with a massive debt, and to improve the piss-poor K-12 education system in this country.

That depends partly on how much money the government gives away in the coming year in the form of more economic stimulus checks, and also proposed tax credits for things like child care that will be taken up by Congress soon. If the far left gets their way, consumers are going to have a lot of extra cash to spend. Also, the revocation of the $10K tax deduction limit on state and local taxes being proposed by Democrats will hand over a lot of extra money to those in the upper middle class. All of this will be inflationary, so that the benefits of the higher after-tax incomes will be at least partially wiped out by higher prices.

You have no clue what far left means. Leading Democrats in the US are at the center of the political spectrum. The pockets of Democrats further to the left have not been able to influence policy.
Child care help is needed. The lack of it is the one of the main reasons the fertility rate is and has been below what it needs to be in the US. And we're about to have a lot more retirees in the next 20 years, with nobody to take their place in the workplace. We can't maintain GDP growth without workers. And child care assistance is supported by many Republicans, Mitt Romney for example.
Cut the crap with the SALT complaint. The right does all it can to provide tax loopholes to high-earners, so to now complain that this gives high-earners a tax break is utterly hypocritical. Besides, that cap was only introduced by Republicans because it would affect those were local taxes are higher, which is mostly blue states.
You're really drinking the KoolAid here...

 

[steelers]

But you said this unemployment assistance was the main reason for the labor shortage. This isn't true. Multiple studies made when this help was $600, not even $300, show that it didn't hurt hiring. You have no data to back your claim up. The reality is that only a tiny amount of workers declined work solely because of how much this aid was,

This monetary policy is NOT what started this inflation spike. This is simply not true. Consequences of COVID did. It even says that in the article you linked to. While their policy isn't helping inflation, which is why they're now taking corrective action, they've waited to take it because 1) the total inflation rate is distorted by a few specific industries and is not a true representation of reality (see my previous post) and 2) the inflation rate had dropped below 2%, which is the generally accepted target, so if it climbed higher for a while, it actually averaged out to a reasonable target. You oversimplify things.
And in your previous post, you said it lowered the labor participation rate, which makes no sense.

No, it isn't just because of that. That's what I keep trying to tell you. For example, Car prices are not high because of lack of workers, but because of a lack of parts. And that sector contribute massively to the inflation rate (it was the largest contributor to inflation in Q2 2021, as I already said).

If wages had kept up with GDP in the last few years instead of being so ridiculously low, this wouldn't be as much of a shock to the system. The massive increase in job openings is allowing people to be picky about where they work and how much they earn. What's your solution? To keep paying people barely enough to survive?
The fact is that most low-wages jobs are leaving the US anyway. This isn't new. It's ample justification to stop using an education system designed to start people in life with a massive debt, and to improve the piss-poor K-12 education system in this country.

You have no clue what far left means. Leading Democrats in the US are at the center of the political spectrum. The pockets of Democrats further to the left have not been able to influence policy.
Child care help is needed. The lack of it is the one of the main reasons the fertility rate is and has been below what it needs to be in the US. And we're about to have a lot more retirees in the next 20 years, with nobody to take their place in the workplace. We can't maintain GDP growth without workers. And child care assistance is supported by many Republicans, Mitt Romney for example.
Cut the crap with the SALT complaint. The right does all it can to provide tax loopholes to high-earners, so to now complain that this gives high-earners a tax break is utterly hypocritical. Besides, that cap was only introduced by Republicans because it would affect those were local taxes are higher, which is mostly blue states.
You're really drinking the KoolAid here...

If as you say the tax breaks would affect the weathy in blue states...that may be a good thing..meaning it may provide motivation for those blue states to reduce spending and taxes...before everyone with an iq over 60 leaves

 

[Alan_F]

If as you say the tax breaks would affect the weathy in blue states...that may be a good thing..meaning it may provide motivation for those blue states to reduce spending and taxes...before everyone with an iq over 60 leaves

The blue states will never reduce spending. It's always more, more, more. I believe that California is loosing 200,000 people per year. I think we put up a fence around California to keep those people there.

 

[Alan_F]

But you said this unemployment assistance was the main reason for the labor shortage. This isn't true. Multiple studies made when this help was $600, not even $300, show that it didn't hurt hiring. You have no data to back your claim up. The reality is that only a tiny amount of workers declined work solely because of how much this aid was,

This monetary policy is NOT what started this inflation spike. This is simply not true. Consequences of COVID did. It even says that in the article you linked to. While their policy isn't helping inflation, which is why they're now taking corrective action, they've waited to take it because 1) the total inflation rate is distorted by a few specific industries and is not a true representation of reality (see my previous post) and 2) the inflation rate had dropped below 2%, which is the generally accepted target, so if it climbed higher for a while, it actually averaged out to a reasonable target. You oversimplify things.
And in your previous post, you said it lowered the labor participation rate, which makes no sense.

No, it isn't just because of that. That's what I keep trying to tell you. For example, Car prices are not high because of lack of workers, but because of a lack of parts. And that sector contribute massively to the inflation rate (it was the largest contributor to inflation in Q2 2021, as I already said).

If wages had kept up with GDP in the last few years instead of being so ridiculously low, this wouldn't be as much of a shock to the system. The massive increase in job openings is allowing people to be picky about where they work and how much they earn. What's your solution? To keep paying people barely enough to survive?
The fact is that most low-wages jobs are leaving the US anyway. This isn't new. It's ample justification to stop using an education system designed to start people in life with a massive debt, and to improve the piss-poor K-12 education system in this country.

You have no clue what far left means. Leading Democrats in the US are at the center of the political spectrum. The pockets of Democrats further to the left have not been able to influence policy.
Child care help is needed. The lack of it is the one of the main reasons the fertility rate is and has been below what it needs to be in the US. And we're about to have a lot more retirees in the next 20 years, with nobody to take their place in the workplace. We can't maintain GDP growth without workers. And child care assistance is supported by many Republicans, Mitt Romney for example.
Cut the crap with the SALT complaint. The right does all it can to provide tax loopholes to high-earners, so to now complain that this gives high-earners a tax break is utterly hypocritical. Besides, that cap was only introduced by Republicans because it would affect those were local taxes are higher, which is mostly blue states.
You're really drinking the KoolAid here...

I don't recall saying that the unemployment insurance was the main reason for the labor shortage. There were multiple reasons. But it was a factor in low skilled jobs, because some of those people on unemployment insurance did "black market" day-labor jobs with notifying the state unemployment agencies, so they were double-dipping.

I didn't say that Federal Reserve monetary policy started this inflation spike. However, one of their mandates is keep inflation in check before it happens, not just after. They have been late doing that, and said they will speed up tapering.

You are correct that car prices have been affected by computer chip part shortages. But they have also been affected by government handouts that caused a lot of people to be flush with cash.

Wages keep up with GDP? I don't understand why that is important. Maybe you mean per-capita GDP, but not sure why that so important either. Wages should keep up with inflation.

Regarding the far left, there are people like Bernie Sanders who is not even a Democrat (he "caucuses" with the Democrats, but he is a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist, and officially an Independent) who almost won the Democratic nomination for President. Sanders led the effort for the $3.5 Trillion spending package, over and above the amount for infrastructure. If you don't think he is far left, that is your opinion (which is wrong). If the Democrats are in the middle, then how come there are only 50 Democratic senators and they only have a 6 vote majority in the House?

 

[Eric2203]

I don't recall saying that the unemployment insurance was the main reason for the labor shortage.

You did.

some of those people on unemployment insurance did "black market" day-labor jobs with notifying the state unemployment agencies, so they were double-dipping.

Before, it was "a lot", now it's "some". Still waiting on data that proves it, and that it had more than a negligible influence on the situation.

I didn't say that Federal Reserve monetary policy started this inflation spike. However, one of their mandates is keep inflation in check before it happens, not just after. They have been late doing that, and said they will speed up tapering.

The point is that a lot of it is out of their control, because COVID created an unprecedented situation. Any economist will tell you that inflation is hard to understand, predict and control.

You are correct that car prices have been affected by computer chip part shortages. But they have also been affected by government handouts that caused a lot of people to be flush with cash.

Oh right, because everyone rushed to buy a car with their stimulus, right? It's not the extra cash that made people buy cars, it's the fact that people held on buying a car, particularly when they were a lot less necessary when everyone was home. It created this peak of demand on the other side of the pandemic. That's very well documented. If cash had done it, you'd have seen the increase in 2020 when stimulus first started, not 2021.
Besides, before exiting the pandemic, manufacturers were giving away cars. Hyundai had practically all models (notable exception: the Palisade) available for 0% loans. The increased demand didn't cause the car shortage. This one is a very straightforward supply chain issue.

Wages keep up with GDP? I don't understand why that is important.

Because inequality. Look it up. If wages only kept up with inflation then no worker would get richer, yet the country continues to generate more wealth per worker than in the past. If that extra wealth only goes to the top and isn't distributed to workers, you get inequality.

Regarding the far left, there are people like Bernie Sanders who is not even a Democrat (he "caucuses" with the Democrats, but he is a self-proclaimed Democratic Socialist, and officially an Independent) who almost won the Democratic nomination for President. Sanders led the effort for the $3.5 Trillion spending package, over and above the amount for infrastructure. If you don't think he is far left, that is your opinion (which is wrong). If the Democrats are in the middle, then how come there are only 50 Democratic senators and they only have a 6 vote majority in the House?

I don't even know where to start with that... Socialism is left, it's not far left. Communism is far left. So no, Bernie isn't far left, no matter how much you wish it. The vast majority of Democrats aren't even socialists. Far from it. I suggest you study the political spectrum a little more: it's wider than you think.
What does that have to do with how many are in Congress? It's a 2-party country, with a massive gerrymandering problem, with low-population states getting the same amount of senators as highly populated ones. If you don't understand how that's unequal and not representative of popular opinion, then I can't help you...

If as you say the tax breaks would affect the weathy in blue states...that may be a good thing..meaning it may provide motivation for those blue states to reduce spending and taxes...before everyone with an iq over 60 leaves

Weird how these horrible blue states somehow generate most of the wealth...

 

[Alan_F]

Socialism is left, it's not far left.

I am not going to even bother to refute all the other false statements you made about what I said, and what is happening. This ones sums up everything as nicely as one could wish as to where your head is at.

 

[Eric2203]

I am not going to even bother to refute all the other false statements you made about what I said, and what is happening. This ones sums up everything as nicely as one could wish as to where your head is at.

My head is firmly planted. If you can't understand the nuances of the political spectrum beyond just "left" or "right", you need to open books, study history, and other countries. There are many shades of "left" just as there are many shades of "right". The current Democratic party in the US has a centrist core with pockets of leftists (not extreme leftists), while the current Republican party has a conservative core (closer to the extreme right) with pockets of moderates (closer to center).

As to what you said, it's there for all to see in your post history: according to you, labor shortages are the cause of inflation, and labor shortage are caused by people not wanting to work due to having too much money handed out to them. Yet, none of this has been backed up by any solid data or numbers, because the reality is that it has only had a moderate impact.

 

[steelers]

OK gentleman...let's get back to the topic..
Regarding politics..I prefer not to get into back and forth on this forum.
But,it is worth noting that I have had decades of involvement in politics, elections, campaigns, etc.